74 “School Shootings” since Sandy Hook. Really?


I saw a posting from the Examiner posted that school shootings are on the rise. Here is their chart:

fed9adb5d7b28463a455ba0960168410[1]

When I see a chart this far out of skew, I start to wonder. Are the numbers being charted the same as previous numbers. In other words, what are we calling a school shooting?

I also saw this article that stated there were 74 school shootings since Sandy Hook. You can also see a map in the Washington Post.“Of the shootings, 35 took place at a college or university, while 39 took place in K-12 schools”. This is even more dramatic, as the Examiner only stated there were 7 “school shootings” last year.

Here is the table from the link that posted there were 74 school shootings.

#

Date

City

State

School Name

School Type

1. 1/08/2013 Fort Myers FL Apostolic Revival Center Christian School K-12
2. 1/10/2013 Taft CA Taft Union High School K-12
3. 1/15/2013 St. Louis MO Stevens Institute of Business & Arts College/University
4. 1/15/2013 Hazard KY Hazard Community and Technical College College/University
5. 1/16/2013 Chicago IL Chicago State University College/University
6. 1/22/2013
Houston TX Lone Star College North Harris Campus College/University
7. 1/31/2013 Atlanta GA Price Middle School K-12
8. 2/1/2013 Atlanta GA Morehouse College College/University
9. 2/7/2013 Fort Pierce FL Indian River St. College College/University
10. 2/13/2013 San Leandro CA Hillside Elementary School K-12
11. 2/27/2013 Atlanta GA Henry W. Grady HS K-12
12. 3/18/2013 Orlando FL University of Central Florida College/University
13. 3/21/2013 Southgate MI Davidson Middle School K-12
14. 4/12/2013 Christianburg VA New River Community College College/University
15. 4/13/2013 Elizabeth City NC Elizabeth City State University College/University
16. 4/15/2013 Grambling LA Grambling State University College/University
17. 4/16/2013 Tuscaloosa AL Stillman College College/University
18. 4/29/2013 Cincinnati OH La Salle High School K-12
19. 6/7/2013 Santa Monica CA Santa Monica College College/University
20. 6/19/2013 W. Palm Beach FL Alexander W. Dreyfoos School of the Arts K-12
21. 8/15/2013 Clarksville TN Northwest High School K-12
22. 8/20/2013 Decatur GA Ronald E. McNair Discovery Learning Academy K-12
23. 8/22/2013 Memphis TN Westside Elementary School K-12
24. 8/23/2013 Sardis MS North Panola High School K-12
25. 8/30/2013 Winston-Salem NC Carver High School K-12
26. 9/21/2013 Savannah GA Savannah State University College/University
27. 9/28/2013 Gray ME New Gloucester High School K-12
28. 10/4/2013 Pine Hills FL Agape Christian Academy K-12
29. 10/15/2013 Austin TX Lanier High School K-12
30. 10/21/2013 Sparks NV Sparks Middle School K-12
31. 11/1/2013 Algona IA Algona High/Middle School K-12
32. 11/2/2013 Greensboro NC North Carolina A&T State University College/University
33. 11/3/2013 Stone Mountain GA Stephenson High School K-12
34. 11/21/2013 Rapid City SD South Dakota School of Mines & Technology College/University
35. 12/4/2013 Winter Garden FL West Orange High School K-12
36. 12/13/2013 Arapahoe County CO Arapahoe High School K-12
37. 12/19/2013 Fresno CA Edison High School K-12
38. 1/9/2014 Jackson TN Liberty Technology Magnet HS K-12
39. 1/14/2014 Roswell NM Berrendo Middle School K-12
40. 1/15/2014 Lancaster PA Martin Luther King Jr. ES K-12
41. 1/17/2014 Philadelphia PA Delaware Valley Charter HS K-12
42. 1/20/2014 Chester PA Widener University College/University
43. 1/21/2014 West Lafayette IN Purdue University College/University
44. 1/24/2014 Orangeburg SC South Carolina State University College/University
45. 1/28/2014 Nashville TN Tennessee State University College/University
46. 1/28/2014 Grambling LA Grambling State University College/University
47. 1/30/2014 Palm Bay FL Eastern Florida State College College/University
48. 1/31/2014 Phoenix AZ Cesar Chavez High School K-12
49. 1/31/2014 Des Moines IA North High School K-12
50. 2/7/2014 Bend OR Bend High School K-12
51. 2/10/2014 Salisbury NC Salisbury High School K-12
52. 2/11/2014 Lyndhurst OH Brush High School K-12
53. 2/12/2014 Jackson TN Union University College/University
54. 2/20/2014 Raytown MO Raytown Success Academy K-12
55. 3/2/2014 Westminster MD McDaniel College College/University
56. 3/7/2014 Tallulah LA Madison High School K-12
57. 3/8/2014 Oshkosh WI University of Wisconsin – Oshkosh College/University
58. 3/21/2014 Newark DE University of Delaware College/University
59. 3/30/2014 Savannah GA Savannah State University College/University
60. 4/3/2014 Kent OH Kent State University College/University
61. 4/7/2014 Roswell NM Eastern New Mexico University-Roswell College/University
62. 4/11/2014 Detroit MI East English Village Preparatory Academy K-12
63. 4/21/2014 Griffith IN St. Mary Catholic School K-12
64. 4/21/2014 Provo UT Provo High School K-12
65. 4/26/2014 Council Bluffs IA Iowa Western Community College College/University
66. 5/2/2014 Milwaukee WI Marquette University College/University
67. 5/3/2014 Everett WA Horizon Elementary School K-12
68. 5/4/2014 Augusta GA Paine College College/University
69. 5/5/2014 Augusta GA Paine College College/University
70. 5/8/2014 Georgetown KY Georgetown College College/University
71. 5/8/2014 Lawrenceville GA Georgia Gwinnett College College/University
72. 5/21/2014 Milwaukee WI Clark Street School K-12
73. 6/5/2014 Seattle WA Seattle Pacific University College/University
74. 6/10/2014 Troutdale OR Reynolds High School K-12

Here is a map for those who are visual.

School-Shootings-USA-Mapped[1]

Investigation

I am not one to take something at face value simply because someone states it, so I Googled each of the “school shootings” above.

Before starting with my findings, you have to cross off either #68 or #69 on the list, as there were not two shootings in two consecutive days at Paine College. You should only count one of the incidents, as there was only one incident. That leaves us with 73 incidents to investigate.

Of the shootings mentioned, at least 5 did not even occur on a school campus at all. Here is the list:

There is also a shooting that took place in a mall that houses a community college in addition to other tenants. Not technically a school shooting. This takes us down to a maximum of 67 “incidents” that took place on a school campus.

The next thing we have to do is define what a “school shooting” means. Does it mean a madman hunting down students only? Do we include gang related offenses or disputes, in which a specific person was targeted and just happened to be shot on campus. Do we including incidents in school parking lots that are not related to the school at all (including a mother gunned down by her estranged husband after dropping off kids and a gunman escaping police who had a shoot out at a community college)? And do you include self-defense shootings, like the teacher shooting non-student assailants at Martin Luther King Jr Elementary School)? And what about things happening on a school yard after hours? Are these all “school shooting”? I would venture a no on most, if not all of these. Your mileage may vary.

Here is a listing of the shootings that are probably not what you would normally call a “school shooting”, by category:

Description Number Dead Gunmen dead Wounded
Off campus (non-school shooting) 6 6 1 3
Parking Lot 26 11 0 15
Suicides 8 8 0 8
Drug Related Shootings 2 2 0 1
Gang Shootings 2 0 0 2
Robberies 5 1 0 6
Self Defense Shootings 2 1 1 2
Accidental discharge 4 0 0 2
Fights/Disputes 34 16 2 22
Student with Gun, no shots fired 1 0 0 0
Shot by rifle from long distance 1 0 0 1

Now, let’s look at incidents that might be called a school shooting. First the targeted shootings.

And, finally, the mass murder type of shootings like Sandy Hook:

  • Shooting #19: Six people killed (including the gunman). June 7, 2013, shooter kills his brother and father and then goes to Santa Monica college where he has a shootout with police in the library.  Six dead (including the gunman), four injured. Three of the dead (including the gunman) died on the campus.
  • Shooting #73: 1 person killed and two wounded. Shooter stopped by pepper spray while reloading his handgun.

NOTE: I am not going to glorify the shooters by calling them anything other than shooters.

Conclusion

Here is how things stack up:

  • Incidents: 73
  • Incidents with injuries or death: 65
  • Incidents that should be excluded
    • Incidents completely off campus: 6
    • Incidents in parking lots: 26
    • Robbery incidents: 5
    • Fight/Dispute incidents: 34
    • Suicides: 8
    • Accidental discharge: 4
    • Gun on campus, no shooting: 1
    • Self-defense shootings: 2
  • Incidents not Classified in above: 6 (including Reynold’s High School yesterday)
  • Incidents with mass shooters and random targets: 2 (only 1 targeting a school at start)

  • Looking at the list, we had 6 incidents in the last year and a half that we might classify as a “school shooting” (person comes to school with intent to harm, especially if shooting random victims) . This is close to the Examiner’s numbers. Of those, there are only 2 that could have been like a Sandy Hook (although both were at Universities and the shooters were stopped or killed rather quickly).

Is school shooting on the rise in 2013? If you look at Wikipedia, you see the following on incidents:

Year

Incidents Deaths Injuries
1999 5 16 33
2000 4 4 2
2001 4 3 19
2002 3 4 3
2003 3 5 2
2004 4 1 5
2005 3 11 10
2006 6 10 8
2007 4 36 29
2008 9 15 27
2009 7 2 13
2010 10 14 21
2011 14 50 31
2012 31 25 33
2013 31 19 38

The problem is the Wikipedia table suffers from the same problem as the earlier arguments, or same two problems:

  1. Some incidents that are not “school shootings”, including some that happen at night, incidents in parking lots, fights and some incidents not even on school property, show up in the list.
  2. The data set is incomplete, as you can only find what is searchable on the Internet. You will naturally find more “incidents” this year, as the media is quick to call something a school shooting and is more apt to report on every “incident”.

But it does provide a completely different chart than the Examiner:

image

What I like here is the fact the chart is all over the board shows how sporadic the data is and strongly suggests the data set is more and more incomplete as we move back in time. It also shows spikes when mass murder school incidents have happened and illustrates how rare they really are.

Summary

Here is how I look at this.

  1. It is tragic when people are killed. Especially tragic when it is children and even more so when it is Elementary School children.
  2. The number of ‘’”incidents” may be on the rise, but, if so, it is only slightly. The majority of press on “rising incidents” uses “incidents” we would not normally classify as a “school shooting” (like man killed in a school parking lot at 2 AM after altercation). NOTE: This does not mean we should not do anything about it, but we should be sensible and not panic and knee jerk into another stupid direction.
  3. The number of mass murder type incidents is not on the rise. These, like Columbine and Sandy Hook, are the ones that should really scare us, as they are individuals intent on causing a huge amount of harm to innocent victims.

If we objectively look at the ‘’”problem”, we should notice that our children are not in real danger. School shootings are extremely rare incidents. When there is a school shooting, it is normally individuals targeting people they dislike for some reason, including bullying, gangs, bad grades, etc. In these instances, like any other assault or murder, it is an issue between two people and not some mass murdering clown.

As for the list that started the topic, I find it to be an unscientific bit of tripe. At best, it is an emotional argument crated by someone trying to show his emotions are justified. At worst, it is a bold faced lie. You decide.

Peace and Grace,
Greg

Twitter: @gbworld

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